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Defending champions Australia face the No 1 team in the 2023-25 World Test Championship cycle with South Africa out to claim the crown for the first time and finally put to bed their “chokers” tag. Australia have played their part as much as any side in stamping that label on South Africa across three decades, but much of that pain and misery could be washed away with a shock triumph at Lord’s.
South Africa might be the underdogs but topped the WTC table after taking 69.44% of their possible points from 12 Tests, with Australia the clear next best on 67.54% from 19 matches. The once familiar foes did not meet over the past two years but with an intense rivalry always simmering below the surface and a winner-takes-all contest sure to light a fuse, we look at where the WTC final will be won and lost.
1. Australia to relish Lord’s return
Australia found a home away from home with a 75-year unbeaten streak at Lord’s that ended during the 2009 Ashes. Three wins, one loss and a draw since then leave Australia with the best winning percentage (45%) of any side, while they have only suffered seven defeats in 40 Tests at the iconic venue. South Africa have won 33% of their 18 Tests at Lord’s, though five of those victories have come in seven matches since their return to the international scene in 1992.
The last time Australia visited Lord’s for a Test was far from a homecoming amid wild scenes in the stands and behind closed doors. The England players – and MCC members – didn’t take too kindly to Jonny Bairstow’s stumping after Australia skipper Pat Cummins and Alex Carey spotted his tendency to prematurely wander out of his crease. Australia, as is usually their way, refused to take a backward step and later were able to find comfort in a tense triumph made all the sweeter by the outrage that followed.
Lord’s has been a rich hunting ground for Australia despite its intimidating atmosphere.
Photograph: Ryan Pierse/Getty ImagesSteve Smith is of course familiar with an on-field flashpoint or two but has largely let his batting do the talking at the venue where he made his Test debut against Pakistan in 2010. Australia’s No 4 has amassed 525 runs at 58.33 at Lord’s, including a century on his last visit in 2023, and needs 17 more runs to pass Don Bradman for the most scored for the side on the hallowed turf.
2. South Africa bring an element of surprise
More than four months have passed since the WTC cycle ended with Australia crushing Sri Lanka in two Tests, and almost six months have lapsed since South Africa sealed their spot in the decider. The Proteas arguably found a way to the WTC final through a back door while playing the equal-fewest Tests across the two-year cycle and sweeping the floor with the clear bottom-four sides.
One win in their first five matches hardly hinted at an impending trip to Lord’s, though that victory in December 2023 came against beaten finalists India as veteran Dean Elgar turned back the clock with a monster ton in his penultimate Test. A loss to India squared the home series and was followed by a pair of defeats by a third-string side sent to New Zealand, before South Africa bounced back from their latest bout of white-ball tournament heartbreak to surge into the red-ball decider with seven straight Test victories.
South Africa will be led by the indomitable Kagiso Rabada at Lord’s. Photograph: Themba Hadebe/AP
That winning streak is South Africa’s second longest in the format though it is just as notable for the absence of a big scalp that the reigning WTC champions would most certainly represent. The Proteas can of course only beat the sides placed in front of them but a victory over West Indies in the Caribbean and two triumphs in Bangladesh, followed by a pair of home wins against each of Sri Lanka and Pakistan does little to boost confidence that they can take down Australia as the stakes – and pressure – rise.
South Africa won at Lord’s the last time they visited England for a Test series in 2022, though Aiden Markram and keeper Kyle Verreynne are the only batters from that XI still in the squad. Not only are eight of South Africa’s WTC squad yet to play a Test at Lord’s but the same group have not faced Australia in the longest format – hardly a surprise when the sides have met once, for a three-match series, in the seven years since “sandpapergate” erupted in 2018. The unfamiliarity could work both ways for South Africa, let alone Australia, but any advice from England’s Ashes tormentor-in-chief Stuart Broad should be well received.
3. Selection squeeze a sign of blossoming depth
Australia’s rediscovered depth is highlighted by lingering uncertainty over their batting lineup for the WTC final, as well as Josh Hazlewood and Scott Boland yet again fighting for the one spot in the pace attack. The availability of Cameron Green is expected to cause a reshuffle with regular No 3 Marnus Labuschagne being earmarked to open for the first time in a Test at the expense of teenage sensation Sam Konstas.
Green won’t bowl at Lord’s after missing all of last summer due to a back injury, with the Ashes later this year the target for his return with the ball. Australia might turn to the versatile Beau Webster as an all-rounder if concerns over Hazlewood’s durability across five days aren’t quite enough to rule the 34-year-old quick out of a second successive WTC final.
The return of Cameron Green will bolster Australia’s batting line-up. Photograph: Alex Davidson-ICC/ICC/Getty Images
But the return of Green gives Australia ominous depth in their batting lineup even if it means an unfamiliar role for Labuschagne who would likely also be playing to hold onto his place in the XI for the upcoming tour of the Caribbean. The defending champions had three batters – Usman Khawaja (1,422), Smith (1,324) and Head (1,177) – among the top-10 leading run-scorers in the WTC cycle, with the former captain returning to form with five centuries. Left-hander Head will return to the middle-order after opening in Sri Lanka but has shown he can be trusted to perform on the biggest stages wherever he bats, including with a match-defining 163 that all but took the last WTC final away from India.
4. South Africa attack can rattle Australia
While Australia have more experience and depth among their batters, South Africa can aim to match their acclaimed pace attack whether Hazlewood or Boland is preferred to partner Cummins and Mitchell Starc. South Africa will be led by Kagiso Rabada – available after serving a one-month suspension for failing a doping test in January – who carries a stellar record into the clash.
Rabada has taken 49 Australian scalps at 23.08 across 10 Tests, largely built on finishing the 2018 series as the leading wicket-taker with 23. The right-arm quick also has the best average at Lord’s of all the fast bowlers set to take the stage for the WTC final with 13 wickets at 19.38 from his two Tests at the venue. The 30-year-old’s 47 wickets at 19.97 from 10 Tests in the WTC cycle have him ranked as the ICC’s No 2 bowler in the format, narrowly ahead of Cummins and Hazlewood.
Marco Jansen can pose problems for Australia’s batters in London. Photograph: Matthew Lewis-ICC/ICC/Getty Images
Towering left-armer Marco Jansen has climbed into the top 10 in the Test bowling rankings at the age of 25 and will threaten Australia’s batters with his bounce as much as his pace. All-rounder Wiaan Mulder adds useful variety with his seamers while being a handy lower-order batter who might even be called on earlier in the South Africa innings, leaving the last spot in the pace attack to come down to a battle between three.
Lungi Ngidi is backed by experience and reliability to bowl a tight line, as well as an imposing Test record with 55 wickets at 23.14, while Dane Paterson moves the ball in the air and bowls with a guile well suited to English conditions. But with low expectations making this WTC final almost a free hit for South Africa, a wildcard like express-paced, one-Test quick Corbin Bosch could be just what is needed to unsettle the defending champions.
