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Four in five English local authorities will be in effect bankrupted by rising special educational needs spending unless the government introduces significant reforms to the system, council leaders have said.
Councils have called on ministers to write off special educational needs and disability (Send) deficits accumulated by local authorities over the past few years. These are projected to reach £14bn in two years’ time.
The government is expected to publish a long-awaited education white paper in the coming weeks setting out its proposals to overhaul the Send system, which is regarded as broken by parents and schools and financially unsustainable by councils.
The Send reforms are regarded as politically fraught, with ministers anxious to slow the growth in spending while avoiding a backbench rebellion and a damaging clash with parents and charities over concerns that existing children’s rights will be diluted.
The Local Government Association (LGA) said 95% of top-tier councils were operating Send deficits, with four-fifths saying they were having to cut council services or take out loans to meet the day to day cost of financing Send overspends.
One council has asked ministers for special permission to raise council tax by above permitted limits to cover the £10m-a-year costs of financing loans needed to cover its Send deficit.
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole council has proposed raising council tax by 7.5% from April, breaking the 4.99% limit. Its accumulated Send deficit stands at £184m and it anticipates will rise to £380m by the end of March 2028.
The council said it had been technically insolvent since April 2025 when its Send deficit became larger than its available financial reserves. It will borrow £95m over the next 12 months to bridge a shortfall between what it receives from the government for Send services and the amount it is legally required to spend on them.
At the end of March 2028, an accounting “override” that allows councils to keep Send spending deficits off balance sheet will come to an end. The LGA survey suggests that if the deficit is not cleared at that point, 79% of councils will in effect become insolvent overnight.
Even if the accumulated debts were cleared in 2028, the LGA says failure to reform the system would result in ongoing spending exceeding budgets in 95% of council areas. The Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated this funding gap at £6bn in 2028-29.
Guardian analysis of recent council papers reveals the huge scale of some Send deficits. Hampshire county council, for example, projects an accumulated deficit of £706m by the end of March 2028. West Sussex county council expects a corresponding deficit of £414m, and Suffolk county council £250m.
The LGA said that despite record levels of investment and a high rate of assessment and identification of needs, “there was no clear evidence that outcomes for children with Send have been improving”.
It is unclear whether government would wipe historical Send debts without guarantees from councils that they will cut ongoing costs partly by shifting a greater proportion of Send provision into local mainstream schools and reducing reliance on more expensive private specialist schools.
There are concerns that a no-strings-attached debt write-off would raise fairness issues. A Guardian investigation last year found that of the 32 councils with accumulated Send deficits of more than £50m, 24 were in the wealthiest areas of England.
Much of the increase in spending relates to the rapid growth over the past decade in children and young people having education, health and care plans, which in theory guarantee support for pupils. Numbers have risen from 240,000 in 2014 to about 640,000.
Amanda Hopgood, the chair of the LGA’s children, young people and families committee, said: “Councils are committed to supporting every child and young person to achieve their potential and clearly what is important is that children and young people get the support they need. But under the current system, the rise in support need has left many councils buckling under the strain.”
The government was approached for comment.
