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Downing Street has launched an extraordinary operation to protect Keir Starmer amid fears among the prime minister’s closest allies that he is vulnerable to a leadership challenge in the wake of the budget.
Starmer’s most senior political aides warned that any attempt to oust the prime minister over tanking poll ratings would be a “reckless” and “dangerous” move that could destabilise the markets, international relationships and the Labour party.
They insisted that Starmer would fight to retain the leadership in any contest that followed a challenge, either immediately after the budget or, more plausibly, following defeat at the May local elections.
A bitter row broke out after No 10 sources said they had grown increasingly concerned over speculation among MPs that Wes Streeting could be planning an imminent coup against the prime minister – a move fiercely denied by the health secretary.
In a sign of how anxious some in No 10 have become over Starmer’s position, senior figures said they had been told that Streeting had 50 frontbenchers willing to stand down if the budget landed badly and the prime minister did not go.
Cabinet ministers told the Guardian that Streeting was just one of several Labour figures who were “on manoeuvres” for the leadership should a vacancy arise – but that none of them were likely to move against Starmer now.
They interpreted the Downing Street intervention as a “stop Wes” strategy that was designed to warn off any putative rivals for the leadership, who MPs say include Angela Rayner, Shabana Mahmood and even Ed Miliband.
“No 10 has gone into full bunker mode, turning on their most loyal cabinet members for absolutely no reason. A circular firing squad won’t help the government out of the hole we’re in,” one source said.
But their warnings were also aimed at jittery Labour MPs, who have grown increasingly concerned about breaking manifesto pledges on tax, the potential for wipeout at the May elections and whether Starmer can successfully deliver change – and a second general election victory.
Several close allies of the prime minister told the Guardian that any move to try to oust him would be “reckless”.
They said Starmer would fight any subsequent leadership contest to see off rivals for the Labour crown. “Keir will not stand aside at this point, for Wes or anybody else,” one said.
“The idea he’d walk away if somebody said the budget hadn’t landed well is nonsense,” a second added. They said he was determined to fight for change for the country, despite the many difficulties.
“We have a challenging situation in the PLP [parliamentary Labour party]. We know everything is a bit febrile and everybody is concerned. But the consequences of a leadership challenge would be enormous and people need to remember that,” the first senior ally said.
“If you chuck a leadership challenge in just 18 months into government you’d destabilise the markets, our allies and I don’t think the public would forgive us. The impact would be very serious. MPs need to think about the reality of what a challenge right now would mean.”
No Labour prime minister has ever been forced out of Downing Street by their own MPs. “To do so at this point in the cycle would be the height of irresponsibility. The party would not recover for a generation,” they added.
The second senior No 10 source said: “Lots of MPs are concerned about where we are but some are going so far as to think it’s a good idea to destabilise the party ahead of, or in the immediate aftermath of, the budget. That’s really risky.
“Until we start delivering change, people are not going to start feeling positive about the government … I don’t see alternative path to a second term other than taking on Farage and delivering on our mandate.
“This is about them feeling we’re behind in the polls and that they need to do something. But it would be a dangerous thing to do – very destabilising for the party, very reckless.”
A third Downing Street source added: “Keir doesn’t realise this is existential for him. But it’s astonishing that MPs think that ousting him might be an answer – the public will just think we’re no different from the last lot.”
Cabinet ministers said they believed Downing Street was hoping to fire off a warning shot to any Labour politicians with leadership ambitions not to act against the prime minister.
“Wes is obviously on manoeuvres but it’s not about ousting Keir, it’s about putting himself in pole position if a vacancy should come about. He’s not the only one. But we’ve all seen the polling and are worried that we’re about to hand the country to Reform,” one cabinet minister said.
“I doubt that anybody who replaced Keir could shift the dial in the country, especially if they also needed to make up for the level of chaos they’d create by changing leader.”
After an abortive attempt at challenging Starmer’s approach earlier this autumn, the Greater Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham, is still believed to have leadership ambitions. Starmer’s former deputy, Rayner, has often been tipped as a successor but may opt to be kingmaker instead.
An ally of Streeting said: “Of course Wes is the frontrunner but this is a kite-flying exercise from a paranoid No 10 who don’t talk to their own MPs. We know that whoever is seen to be wielding the knife won’t wear the crown.
“There is nothing organised or imminent although everyone expects that something will happen if the May elections are as bad as everyone expects. They are so neurotic because they never leave Downing Street and because they put a load of inexperienced people in the whip’s office which nobody will talk to.”
A spokesperson for Streeting, who is delivering a speech to NHS Providers on Wednesday, said the suggestion he was plotting was “categorically untrue”. They added: “Wes’s focus has entirely been on cutting waiting lists for the first time in 15 years, recruiting 2,500 more GPs, and rebuilding the NHS that saved his life.”
Streeting has increasingly become a thorn in Starmer’s side since the election, in which he almost lost his seat to a pro-Gaza independent. He is understood to have spoken out in cabinet meetings against the government’s approach to welfare, digital ID and Gaza.
One of Labour’s most powerful communicators, he has shifted away from the right of the Labour party on key issues, saying publicly that Starmer’s “island of strangers” speech, and attempts to cut winter fuel payments and welfare, were mistakes.
