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The Labour party spent 14 years in the wilderness, following the general election of 2010. It has taken only 18 months for the political project with which it returned to power to implode. The resignation of Morgan McSweeney, Sir Keir Starmer’s chief of staff and the man credited with orchestrating his path to Downing Street, has left the prime minister isolated, rudderless and at the mercy of events he is in no position to control.
Mr McSweeney fell on his sword after taking responsibility for backing the appointment of Lord Mandelson as US ambassador, despite what was known about the peer’s friendship with Jeffrey Epstein. The hope, clearly, was that his departure will give the prime minister the breathing space to reset yet again. Monday’s call for Sir Keir’s own resignation by Anas Sarwar, Labour’s leader in Scotland, soon dispelled that illusion, although it also provoked a show of loyalty from cabinet colleagues.
What now? The prime minister has indicated that he will move to strengthen vetting processes and toughen up rules on lobbying, following revelations that Epstein used Lord Mandelson as a conduit for influence and inside information. Such reforms are overdue, as Gordon Brown has long argued. But the significance of Mr McSweeney’s exit – followed on Monday by the resignation of Sir Keir’s fourth Downing Street communications director, Tim Allan – goes deeper than the Mandelson scandal, appalling as that has been.
Many within Labour will share Mr Sarwar’s view that over the past year and a half there have been “too many incidences where the wrong judgment calls have been made”. The 2024 election triumph revealed, above all, the depth of the nation’s determination to eject the Conservative party from office. But Sir Keir’s admiration for Mr McSweeney’s undoubted campaigning abilities led him to grant his consigliere excessive power and influence. The outsourcing of the government’s strategic direction served neither the prime minister nor the country well.
On core Labour territory such as welfare spending, a hubristic No 10 clique took a confrontational and at times contemptuous approach to the priorities of the party’s own MPs. Subsequent backbench rebellions have eroded the government’s credibility and entrenched a public perception of the prime minister as weak and lacking a plan. With astonishing rapidity the opportunities presented by a huge parliamentary majority, and the goodwill of a country desperate for change, have been squandered.
Sir Keir – and his disenchanted party – must now decide whether the loss of authority and trust can be reversed with him at the helm. At a minimum that will require an end to factionalism, outreach to Labour’s broad left and the offer of a more inspiring progressive narrative. But the coming weeks and months will be a political calvary for the government, however they play out. The Gorton and Denton byelection this month will set the tone for May’s local elections, at which a punishment beating by voters seems inevitable. The mandated publication of more than 100,000 communications between the government and Lord Mandelson will expose an unedifying world of political machinations to an already exasperated public.
The prime minister may yet benefit from a period of respite, as would-be challengers contemplate their options. It seems unlikely that any of them would relish the prospect of leading Labour into a political bloodbath in May. Nor would the country be likely to look more favourably on a party that foisted a fifth prime minister in four years upon it. But this government has now lost control over the trajectory of events. For the foreseeable future, it is difficult to imagine how it could win it back.
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