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Ministers will restart the approval process for two controversial oilfields on Thursday, even as new figures show the UK will be almost entirely dependent on foreign gas by 2050 regardless of whether they are approved.
Michael Shanks, the energy security minister, will on Thursday announce the results of a government consultation on the giant Rosebank field and the smaller Jackdaw one, in a move the industry says will set the tone for the future of production in the North Sea.
The announcement comes as new figures from the climate group Uplift suggest Britain will be almost entirely dependent on foreign gas by 2050, even if the fields are given the green light.
One oil and gas industry source said: “This consultation is not about decisions on specific projects but it’s about how and if we as an industry can continue to produce oil and gas in the UK.”
Tessa Khan, the executive director of Uplift, said: “This Labour government needs to do the right thing and stand up to the oil and gas firms that have got obscenely rich while millions of people in the UK have struggled, and stop their endless polluting. All eyes are now on the government to see if this guidance provides a credible climate test.”
Government sources said they expected the consultation response to be relatively technical and not to give an indication about whether the energy secretary, Ed Miliband, intends to approve the schemes if their developers do reapply for consent.
However, industry sources say they are watching keenly for what the government says about how much power Miliband will have over the decision, whether it distinguishes between oil and gas production and what mitigations it suggests companies could put in place.
The consultation was launched after a judge ruled that the permissions given to Equinor, the lead developer at Rosebank, and Shell, which is in charge of Jackdaw, were unlawful because they did not take into account the full scope of carbon emissions they would produce. The judge ruled that the applications should have accounted for the carbon produced by burning the oil and gas produced at the fields, not just that produced by the drilling.
The oil and gas industry argues the ruling was unfair because they cannot reduce their emissions in the same way as car companies, which can do so by making their vehicles more efficient. Companies also argue that gas will continue to be a part of the UK energy mix for decades to come, regardless of how much is produced in the UK.
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In its submission to the government before the consultation, Offshore Energies UK, which represents the North Sea oil and gas companies, said the current draft guidance did not take into account the “relatively unusual nature of oil and gas projects”.
If Equinor and Shell do reapply, Miliband could have to play a quasi-judicial role in deciding whether to grant permission to begin drilling. The Labour manifesto rules out granting new licences for new fields, but ministers say that does not apply to Rosebank and Jackdaw, which already have their licences and are now awaiting environmental consent to begin drilling.
Government sources say the Treasury is pushing hard to allow the new developments as it focuses the government’s economic policy on growth. But many Labour MPs want Miliband to rule them out if there is a risk they could lead to the UK breaking its climate commitments.
Labour is under pressure from the Conservatives and Reform to drop its net zero target altogether. Miliband said this week that he and other green energy enthusiasts would “win [the] fight” against climate sceptics.
The consultation comes as new analysis from Uplift shows the UK’s gas import dependency will increase from 55% today to 68% in 2030, 85% in 2040 and 94% in 2050, even if new oilfields are given the green light. This is because the UK has already burned through most of the gas in the declining basin.
