Zohran Mamdani appears to pull ahead of Andrew Cuomo, according to new poll

Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic candidate for mayor of New York City, has drawn level with Andrew Cuomo in the city’s primary, according to a new poll, as voters brave record-breaking temperatures to cast their ballots.

Mamdani, a 33-year-old New York assemblyman, may even be leading Cuomo, the 67-year-old former governor and scion of a prominent New York political family, if the poll’s simulation of the system of ranked-choice voting is correct.

A survey by Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill, found that Cuomo led Mamdani 35% to 32% – within the margin of error – for first-choice votes but when calculated by voters’ final round choices, with six other candidates eliminated, Mamdani came out on top at 52% to Cuomo’s 48%.

Under the new “ranked choice” system, voters select their top five candidates in order of preference. If no candidate surpasses 50% in the first round of voting, the candidate who’s last is eliminated and their votes are redistributed.

That could, in theory, favor candidates that have not until now featured strongly in the polls, including comptroller Brad Lander, who was last week detained by Ice agents, or Adrienne Adams, the city council speaker, or Scott Stringer, the former comptroller.

But the mayoral primary does not include Eric Adams, the current Democratic mayor who has decided to run in November’s election as an independent after becoming embroiled in a fundraising scandal. Cuomo, too, is still tarred by the sexual harassment claims that forced him to resign as governor in 2021.

The down-ticket race also features another New Yorker, or “boomerang candidate”, with a clouded reputation. Anthony Weiner, subject of multiple sexting scandals, is running for the city council.

Cuomo has led the polls until now, but Mamdani has surged in recent weeks, setting up a contest between a centrist and a progressive that may, or may not, indicate the direction of travel for Democrats nationally. Both factions of the party will welcome a win as significantly indicative.

Cuomo, whose campaign is lavishly backed by some of New York’s richest people, is endorsed by Mike Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, as well as Bill Clinton and Jim Clyburn, the influential South Carolina congressman. Meanwhile Mamdani scored endorsements from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, but not the New York Times editorial board, which called him “uniquely unsuited” for the city’s challenges.

The race between the leading candidates has been colored by international politics, with some accusing Mamdani of being antisemitic after he defended the phrase “globalize the intifada”. Mamdani says the phrase has been deliberately misinterpreted to smear him and others who stand up for Palestinian rights.

Cuomo later addressed the subject: “Iran cannot have nuclear capability. That’s number one,” he said. “It’s dangerous, not only for the region, it’s dangerous internationally. It’s dangerous for the United States.”