14 hours ago
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After a year that was notoriously close to call (did anyone initially see Anora emerging as the ultimate victor?), this awards season feels a little easier to scope out. Paul Thomas Anderson’s idiosyncratic activism caper One Battle After Another has so far dominated, becoming only the fourth film ever to win best film at both the New York and Los Angeles film circles then the National Board of Review and the National Society of Film Critics. But how far can it go?
It leads this weekend’s Golden Globes with nine nominations but the comedy categories also feature Marty Supreme, now riding high at the box office, and its inescapable leading man Timothée Chalamet. Then on the drama side we have Sinners and Hamnet, two very different films solidifying two very different awards narratives. Here’s how I think it might all play out on Sunday:
Best film (drama)
The belated attempts to add some diversity to the Globes voting pool have been slowly paying off with this year’s major drama category boasting three films in a foreign language, two from Latino directors, one from a Black director, one from a Middle Eastern director and one directed by an Asian woman. Unlike the category-filling days of films like The Great Debaters or Bobby, each film here is enough of a contender to also make the Oscars big 10, making it slightly harder to predict. Frankenstein is perhaps the least likely, a film respected for its craft but perhaps not as loved for its emotional connection, while Sentimental Value is perhaps the opposite yet could be too modest to win. There’s growing buzz for It Was Just an Accident and The Secret Agent, both timely tales of pushing back against oppressive forces, but I think this is going to be a race between Hamnet and Sinners. Sinners has the popular vote (and is the far better film in my opinion) but Hamnet is the more traditional Globes winner and any recent backlash, from those who see it as shameless Oscarbait, has perhaps not had as much impact offline. It’s going to be tight and while I do fear a season of Sinners unfairly being the bridesmaid I think the extra heat from this week’s Actor award noms (with surprise nods for Miles Caton and Wunmi Mosaku) shows there’s still a great deal of momentum that will push it to a win this Sunday.
Will win: Sinners
Should win: Sinners
Shoulda been nominated: Lurker
Best female actor (drama)
While it might have felt that the buzz had cooled on Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley for a minute, with Rose Byrne winning the majority of early awards, it was more the case of the film being more suited to the bigger voting bodies. Like, say, Oppenheimer, this was never going to be as beloved by the critics circles but after her win at last weekend’s Critics Choice awards, expect first-time nominee Buckley to easily take this one. There’s little competition from surprise entrants like Sorry, Baby’s Eva Victor and Hedda’s Tessa Thompson and while a perfectly chilly Julia Roberts makes the most of the sorry old mess that is After the Hunt, the three-time winner is not even in the race. The Globes also love Die My Love’s Jennifer Lawrence but the film hasn’t been as easy to get behind while Sentimental Value’s Renate Reinsve is arguably Buckley’s closest competition but the distance between them is considerable. Given that even naysayers of Hamnet have praised the tearjerking finale, and that so much of that rests on Buckley’s face, I can’t see her losing this one.
Will win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Should win: Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)
Shoulda been nominated: Rebecca Hall (Peter Hujar’s Day)
Best male actor (drama)
Not an easy category to predict this time around (unlike last year when Adrien Brody was the obvious choice) and there are maybe two potential outcomes right now. Unlikely to factor into the race is Netflix, first they have Train Dreams’ Joel Edgerton and I think the film and his performance are a little too quiet to make enough noise while Frankenstein’s Oscar Isaac is the most category-filling inclusion of the lot given how any awards heat that film is gaining is related more to craft and the performance of Jacob Elordi. Then there are the two biopic nods and I think the season has cooled on both The Smashing Machine’s Dwayne Johnson and Deliver Me From Nowhere’s Jeremy Allen White. Which leads us to the two less traditionally Globes yet undeniably more persuasive choices. Michael B Jordan, who gives two commanding performances in Sinners (one could argue three after one of the twins is turned into a vampire), could become only the sixth Black actor to triumph in this category, the star appearing in almost every scene of the film. Or I could see Wagner Moura riding the critical wave to a win for The Secret Agent, after awards at Cannes and the New York film critics circle. It all depends on whether voters are going for a big-budget studio blockbuster (albeit made with unusual personality) or an offbeat foreign language indie. I think in this category, Moura might have it but it’ll be close.
Will win: Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
Should win: Michael B Jordan (Sinners)
Shoulda been nominated: David Strathairn (A Little Prayer)
Best film (comedy or musical)
This used to be something of a joke category, allowing full-blown duds like Burlesque and The Tourist to call themselves “Golden Globe-nominated” but in recent years it’s often been as competitive as drama. This year feels more clearcut than usual with One Battle After Another almost certain to triumph, given how it’s the most nominated film of the night and has picked up pretty much every precursor so far this season. The closest competition would probably be Marty Supreme, which benefits from a later release and some box office success (it’s likely to outgross One Battle in the US), but it’s more pegged to a particular performance and feels like less of a well-rounded choice. Elsewhere, Blue Moon is similarly more of a performance pick, Bugonia will probably be too offbeat while Nouvelle Vague and No Other Choice both show impressive international progress for comedies at the Globes (there have only been three other foreign language films in this category since 2010) but neither has strong enough momentum. One Battle After Another has this one in the bag.
Will win: One Battle After Another
Should win: One Battle After Another
Shoulda been nominated: Twinless
Best female actor (comedy or musical)
Another strong year for this category (2025 saw Demi Moore beat eventual Oscar winner Mikey Madison and fellow nominees Cynthia Erivo and Karla Sofía Gascón) which features only one actor who hasn’t been nominated for a Golden Globe before. That would be One Battle After Another’s Chase Infiniti whose impressive performance still might not be the most memorable in a film of many (the film’s best awards chances are arguably in the supporting categories). She’s likely to join Bugonia’s Emma Stone, Song Sung Blue’s Kate Hudson, The Testament of Ann Lee’s Amanda Seyfried and Wicked: For Good’s Cynthia Erivo on the sidelines with what seems like a clear winner leading the pack. A film like If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You might have seemed too weird to be an awards contender a decade ago (it’s still too weird to break into the comedy/musical category by itself) but the landscape has changed considerably since then and Rose Byrne’s career-topping work has already nabbed her almost all of the early awards. It also doesn’t hurt that, like Moore last year, she is still a glamorous Globes-friendly star and if she wins here, she’ll be Buckley’s biggest competition for the Oscar.
Will win: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You)
Should win: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You)
Shoulda been nominated: Kirsten Dunst (Roofman)
Best male actor (comedy or musical)
As with the comedy/musical film category, this is likely to be down to two contenders. Ethan Hawke’s Blue Moon nod is well earned (he’s the best in the category for me) while Bugonia’s Jesse Plemons and No Other Choice’s Lee Byung-hun are far more than category-fillers (as a reminder Saturday Night’s Gabriel LaBelle was nominated last year) and, well, the less said about Jay Kelly’s George Clooney and the total nothingness of that film, the better. So it’s down to old hand Leonardo DiCaprio and young gun Timothée Chalamet to battle it out. As incredibly funny as DiCaprio is in One Battle After Another (for me, he gives the better comedic turn of the two), it’s undoubtedly going to be the first win for Chalamet (he’s racked up an impressive five nods since 2018). The Globes is kinder to younger male talent than the Oscars (recent non-Oscar winners have included Austin Butler, Chadwick Boseman, Sebastian Stan, Andrew Garfield and Taron Egerton) and while his role as Bob Dylan was politely received, the praise heaped on his turn as Marty Mauser is on a different level. Plus it gives the celeb-hungry Globes telecast an excuse to feature even more shots of Kylie Jenner …
Will win: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Should win: Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
Shoulda been nominated: Dylan O’Brien (Twinless)
Best female supporting actor
An unusual category here with an actor nominated for a role she’s already been nominated for (Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good), two actors from the same film who are speaking in different languages (Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value), a character actor playing a witch in a horror (Amy Madigan in Weapons), a singer and one-time reality star as a political revolutionary (Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another) and, well, Emily Blunt for The Smashing Machine, only unusual perhaps for how unworthy that performance is. I think it’ll be down to Madigan and Taylor, both giving big, all-guns-blazing turns in big studio movies. Madigan won at both the New York film critics circle and the Critics Choice awards so it’s clear she has major support but I think Taylor, giving arguably the most indelible performance in the night’s most nominated film could also take it. It’s a tough call but I think Madigan’s terrifyingly transformative Aunt Gladys has it.
Will win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Should win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Shoulda been nominated: Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
Best male supporting actor
At a distance, this could seem like a battle between two extremely different performances from two Oscar winners in One Battle After Another, the good of Benicio del Toro and the very bad of Sean Penn. Del Toro has been the more awarded of the two so far with multiple critics circle wins (although my personal pick would be Penn) but I could see the Globes ignoring them both, a problem some films often have with two performers in the same category essentially cancelling the other one out. I don’t think there’s much of a threat from Hamnet’s Paul Mescal, who fades into the background in the movie for Buckley, and I can’t see Adam Sandler winning for Jay Kelly, a film that hasn’t secured enough love since its mixed Venice premiere. There’s reason to believe that Stellan Skarsgård could win for what many see as his career-best work in Sentimental Value especially as the film is also directly about the industry. But I think it’s Frankenstein’s Jacob Elordi who will run away with this one. He won at last week’s Critics Choice awards and it’s the kind of big, unrecognisably different turn that voters have always loved (he’s also the best performer in a film that’s otherwise a little shaky acting-wise). Plus he’s a young, handsome actor and in a category that once awarded the otherwise totally out of the race Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals, it would feel like a very old school Globes win.
Will win: Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
Should win: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Shoulda been nominated: Miles Caton (Sinners)
Best director
A category here that’s made up of film-makers from five drama nominees and one comedy (sorry to The Secret Agent’s Kleber Mendonça Filho as the one drama snub) and one that’s also likely to be a rare comedy win (the last non-drama winner was Damien Chazelle for La La Land in 2017 and that was very much a musical). Chlé Zhao took this award home for Nomadland back in 2021 but Hamnet feels more performance-led while the same could also be said for Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. I think Guillermo del Toro is the category-filler here for Frankenstein, a film that for me is one of his worst. There’s a world where the very deserving Jafar Panahi could also make for a bold statement win for It Was Just an Accident, a film that’s both a propulsive thriller and a brave act of defiance. But I think it will come down to Ryan Coogler for Sinner and Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, both bold auteurist epics. I think Anderson will ultimately win out, the film is the most nominated of the night and a juggernaut already this season, and it would make for his first Golden Globe.
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Shoulda been nominated: Michael Angelo Covino (Splitsville)
