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For what it’s worth, I don’t think the Maroons have been bold enough, especially with how the extended squad converts into the nominated XVII.
Put simply, if these two groups play out a typical match of NRL quality rugby league I don’t see how NSW don’t win every time. The Blues pack is a couple of weight divisions more powerful, Nathan Cleary is the halfback of his generation, Stephen Crichton is the premium defensive organiser in the game, Zac Lomax is an aerial weapon, Dylan Edwards is indefatigable, the interchange is deep, and if everything is too predictable they can always toss the ball to the sport’s greatest maverick, Latrell Mitchell.
For Queensland to win conventionally, they must perform at their very best, and NSW must slip off considerably in most areas. As a result, I would advocate the throwing of convention out of the window.
Maybe the Maroons could have turned tonight’s clash into a dogfight, especially taking into account the rain? Bring Corey Horsburgh into the starting pack, call up a scrapper like Jai Arrow, and add a chaos agent to the bench like Reed Mahoney or Felise Kaufusi to create a contest full of disruption and spot fires to deny the Blues flow. Are Kurt Capewell and Trent Loiero realistically likely to outperform Payne Haas, Liam Martin, Angus Crichton, and Isaah Yeo? It feels like Slater and his selection panel are pissing into the wind.
Behind the underpowered forwards Slater has gone all-in on Tom Dearden; an excellent footballer, but is he the kind to play lights-out footy and win a match off his own boot? I can’t see it. Queensland need to tear up the script, not try and rewrite it. They could take a punt on the instinctive qualities of Ezra Mam, Jye Gray or Jayden Campbell, or look at Jamal Fogarty or Braydon Trindall as kicking specialists to overcoming the likely territorial deficit. If that sounds like a lot of fullbacks and halves, then get creative with shirt numbers. Harry Grant was well below par in Brisbane, and Valentine Holmes increasingly seems like a legacy selection, not one based on impact, especially if he’s anything other than 100% off the tee.
Throw caution to the wind while the series remains alive rather than experiment in a dead rubber in July.
When the squads for Origin 2 landed they contained the bombshell that Slater had dropped his captain from the opening round, Daly Cherry-Evans, preferring Tom Dearden at scrum-half.
The call to leave Cherry-Evans remains one of the most seismic in recent memory from either state. He has been the Maroons’ first-choice No 7 and captain since 2019, taking Queensland to three series wins, including their incredible 2020 effort.
Jack Snape sets the scene ahead of a defining Origin clash for Billy Slater.
So it’s concern for camp Queensland, and confidence among the Blues: the State of Origin status quo. Apart from the period of the Maroons’ dominance in the 2000s and 2010s, the Queenslanders have spent much of the Origin era as outsiders. They may be preparing for this crucial clash in AFL-loving Western Australia, but spiritually the Maroons are in their natural habitat.
Preamble
Jonathan Howcroft
Hello everybody and welcome to live coverage of State of Origin Game 2. Kick-off between Queensland and New South Wales at Optus Stadium is scheduled for 8:05pm AEST (6.05pm AWST).
After selling the peerless quality of Origin footy in the preamble to game one I had the rug pulled from under me during a tepid 80 minutes of representative rugby league. The showpiece was undermined by a desperately poor performance from Queensland who were flattered by the 6-18 scoreline.
NSW deserve enormous credit for their control in all facets of the game at Suncorp Stadium, and they look set for a long period of ascendancy with Payne Haas dominating up front, Nathan Cleary dictating terms in the halves, and Zac Lomax demonstrating that precious ability to elevate his performance to the size of the occasion.
It is going to require an incredible turnaround for Queensland as the Origin caravan decamps in the west, and coach Billy Slater is already in the crosshairs following last year’s limp title defence. Slater has made a statement by putting Daly Cherry-Evans out to pasture, but he has more to worry about than simply who plays first receiver.
After four defeats in their past five outings perhaps the famed Queensland underdog spirit will come to the fore and keep the 2025 series alive? Or maybe it will simply be further confirmation that we are in a golden age of NSW rugby league.
