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The startled joy that greeted Bashar al-Assad’s fall less than six months ago was always shadowed by the fear of what might follow. Hundreds of thousands of the six million Syrians who fled abroad during 14 years of war have returned. Yet the mood has inevitably grown more sober, and last week Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, warned that the fractured country could be weeks away from “potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions”.
Mr Rubio was defending Donald Trump’s abrupt decision to lift sanctions after meeting the country’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa – a former al-Qaida fighter who until months ago had a $10m US bounty on his head, but who is also, in Mr Trump’s considered view, a “young, attractive guy. Tough guy”. Whatever the trigger, the suspension of some sanctions by the US, and the lifting of some EU and UK measures, was essential to allow a country devastated by civil war to recover. It may also reduce opportunities somewhat for Russia and Iran to reassert their influence.
Turkey is a longtime backer of Mr Sharaa, who came to power as leader of the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the military operation to oust Mr Assad. Other governments are less keen, but may be concerned that they cannot afford for him to fail, after watching Syria being torn apart – and dealing with the fallout. Israel ignored that lesson, launching hundreds of attacks on Syria, but has dialled them down since Mr Trump’s embrace of the new leader. It should also withdraw from the territory it has seized.
Many Syrians too have concluded that while Mr Sharaa is not the leader they would have chosen, he is the one they have – backing him for fear of the alternative. The government has only limited control of the country. Violence remains rife. Minority communities are understandably terrified after atrocities in March. The Syrian government had called for reinforcements as Assad loyalists ambushed security forces, but fighters who converged on Latakia province slaughtered hundreds of mainly Alawite civilians. Mr Sharaa blamed “individual actions”. Islamic State, thriving since Mr Assad’s fall, has seized upon Mr Sharaa’s rapprochement with the US as a recruitment tool, hoping to persuade foreign fighters and others that they will be sold out.
Politically, too, there is deep unease. The new constitution concentrates power in the executive. Mr Sharaa says that Syrians will be able to choose their leaders – but not for at least four years. While his cabinet contains members of minority communities – Alawite (Mr Assad’s sect), Druze, Kurdish and Christian (the only woman in the team) – the key positions are held by HTS figures.
Speaking in Aleppo on Tuesday, the president declared that “our war against tyranny has ended, and our battle against poverty has begun”. Though it will take time for relief from sanctions to be felt, and though the gradual loosening is sensible given concerns about the leadership, a new Syria cannot be realised without their relaxation. Infrastructure has been destroyed. Half the population remains displaced. Unemployment is high and food prices are rising. Syria is the world’s fourth most food-insecure country, with seven out of 10 people – more than 16 million – in need of humanitarian assistance.
These material needs are matched by the demand for accountability and reassurance through transitional justice. Syrians will not feel safe until perpetrators are held to account for the viciousness of the Assad regime and for March’s horrific crimes. Those who are warily engaging with Mr Sharaa must remember, and remind him, that containing violence cannot be separated from the tasks of economic and social progress and political inclusion.
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