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In the lead-up to Denmark’s snap election on Tuesday, it was revealed that blood supplies were flown into Greenland in January in order to treat Danish military casualties in the event of a US invasion. Against that surreal backdrop, the country’s Social Democrat prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, did not need to work too hard to justify a “stick to what you know” message in uncertain times.
Ms Frederiksen’s surprise gamble in calling an early poll duly paid off, but only just. Donald Trump’s threats to annex territory belonging to a Nato ally handed her party a patriotic lifeline, after it had endured a historic humiliation in local contests last November. But in a campaign dominated by domestic issues, the hoped-for Trump bump was modest, meaning that any Frederiksen-led coalition will depend on centrist support. The Social Democratic party remains comfortably the biggest political force, but its vote share dropped markedly compared to the last general election, while rivals to the left and on the far right made notable gains.
Those sizeable caveats aside, the Danish vote – and a significant week in European politics more generally – offers the continent’s progressives some reasons to be cautiously cheerful. The forward march of the populist right has not been halted, as recent state election results in Germany also attest. But there are signs that Mr Trump’s deepening unpopularity, and his illegal and economically reckless war on Iran, may be contributing to a subtle change in the political weather.
In Italy, which goes to the polls next year, Giorgia Meloni is enduring by far the rockiest period of her premiership. After badly losing a referendum on proposals to change the country’s judicial system, the western leader closest to the White House is unlikely to succeed in pushing through other controversial constitutional changes. But the referendum vote was also used as an opportunity to pass a more general verdict on a government that has failed to improve living standards. It has been followed by resignations, and a new sense of Ms Meloni’s political vulnerability.
In French local elections last weekend, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National failed to make the symbolic breakthrough it craved in major cities, while centre-left parties performed well enough to offer renewed hope for the post-Macron era. In Slovenia, amid allegations of foreign interference in favour of a Trumpian opposition candidate, the centre-left prime minister, Robert Golob, won the tightest election in the country’s history.
It might not quite add up to a socialist spring. But if they are bold, progressive parties can turn this moment to their advantage. European angst over the transatlantic relationship has led to more collectively assertive stances on the economy, Ukraine and security. As another energy shock – this time made in Washington rather than Moscow – deepens voters’ concerns over the cost of living and rising inequality, the populist-right formula of militant nationalism, attacks on welfare and tax cuts for the rich may further lose its shine.
Ms Frederiksen has indicated that she will seek to form a left-leaning coalition government, backed by the centre-right Moderates party. That will be a far from easy deal to achieve. But she was right to point out that “The world is not waiting for us out there, and it has only become even more restless than when the election was called.” For Europe’s centre left, that restlessness is a political opportunity.
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