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Death rains down on Gaza City. Starvation stalks the north of Gaza. Israel has now killed more than 65,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians.
The prospects of even a ceasefire look dim, never mind a long-term settlement. But formally announcing the UK’s recognition of a Palestinian state on Sunday, Sir Keir Starmer remarked: “The hope of a two-state solution is fading but we cannot let that light go out.” Canada and Australia announced recognition too ahead of the United Nations summit in New York on Monday, in a wave spearheaded by France.
Britain’s historical responsibilities make recognition particularly necessary. It remains wholly insufficient. Not only was the UK dragged to this point; unlike others, it made the announcement conditional. The prime minister stated that it would happen unless Israel agreed to a ceasefire and other terms, which Benjamin Netanyahu’s government was never going to meet. In doing so, he wrongly presented statehood as a bargaining chip – instead of clearly declaring the inalienable right of Palestinians to self-determination.
The mass diplomatic shift is symbolic; the US will continue to block full Palestinian membership of the UN. At best, this is part of a concerted effort to end the war, revive the longer-term prospects for statehood and prevent ethnic cleansing. The UN general assembly overwhelmingly backed a motion calling for a two-state solution earlier this month.
The more cynical reckoning is that governments are scrambling to appease domestic anger at their complicity, and avoiding more substantive steps. Israel looks more isolated by the day. While the Trump administration appears unshiftable, public support in the US too is plummeting. A detailed UN report has found that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Yet only two weeks ago, British ministers said that the UK had not reached that conclusion.
Mr Netanyahu, who calls recognition a “reward” for terror, suggests that Israel could become an autarkic “super-Sparta” and pursues an endless war. Israelis want him to stop. But after the Hamas atrocities of 7 October 2023, only 21% believe that Israel and a Palestinian state could coexist peacefully. Palestinians can put limited faith in such a prospect after the last two years – but the alternative looks like further annexation and expulsion.
The two-state solution has been on life support for years, savaged daily by Israeli settlers with official encouragement. The assault on Gaza and its people appears designed to bury it. Donald Trump, who could end this war with a phone call, refused Palestinian delegates the visas they needed to attend the general assembly. Emmanuel Macron and others still hope to convince him that his dream of a Nobel-winning grand Middle Eastern deal cannot be realised without progress for Palestinians.
The EU, Israel’s largest trading partner, has real leverage. The Commission has finally urged the suspension of free trade but, as yet, even more modest plans to suspend research grants have not been agreed. Britain and European states must end all arms transfers and military cooperation, cut trade privileges and pursue international accountability.
Promoting a mirage of a Palestinian state without taking meaningful action to halt the annihilation would be cruel, cowardly and self-serving. But while ending the killing must be the priority, the destination cannot be simply stopping Palestinian deaths. It must be establishing the opportunities for life and nationhood that should have been ensured long ago.
