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Andy Burnham is heading back to the Commons after a resounding victory in Makerfield, putting Keir Starmer’s leadership on notice, and giving Reform something to think about. The now to be former mayor of Greater Manchester described it as the “most consequential byelection of our lives” and promised he would not only change the constituency, but the country. Already, he has touted his win as a “turning point”.
The coming days will tell us more about what happens in terms of his expected challenge to Starmer’s premiership. But his stunning win against Reform is already being unpacked by politicians and pollsters.
Here’s what you need to know about the Makerfield result – and two other byelection results in Scotland.
How did the night play out?
As counting got under way late last night, no party seemed overly confident, says the Guardian’s north of England correspondent Hannah Al-Othman. But turnout of 58.75% – up from 52.5% at the 2024 general election and the highest for a byelection in seven years – was an early positive indicator for Burnham.
When the results were announced just after 3am, it was clear that Burnham had secured a thumping victory, winning 24,927 votes (55%) for Labour and increasing the party’s vote share by nearly 10%. Robert Kenyon, for Reform, won 15,696 votes (35%) and Rebecca Shepherd, for Restore Britain, the new hard-right party, trailed a distant third on 3,111 votes (6.84%)
There was much talk of Restore aiding Burnham’s victory in the run-up to polling day, says Hannah, “but actually Burnham won without them”, securing 6,100 more votes than both Reform and Restore combined, which will add huge momentum to any leadership bid.
After much analysis of the Greens eating into Labour support, Burnham looks to have united the progressive vote behind him. Hannah says there was “definitely evidence of tactical voting – Lib Dems only got 163 and Green 308”.
The polling expert John Curtice cautioned against reading a wider surge for Labour into the results, telling the BBC that much of Burnham’s success lay in “his appeal to those who wanted to see the back of Keir Starmer”.
Given the scale of the Labour victory, Hannah notes there wasn’t a “party atmosphere” at the count among Burnham’s campaign: “The mood was very much: ‘What’s next?’”
What happens next?
It is fair to say that Burnham now looks unstoppable. As Andrew Sparrow reported in his live blog, Louise Haigh – the former transport minister and one of the key figures running Burnham’s campaign – has been saying Keir Starmer should agree to an “orderly and managed” handover of power.
After a week in which Starmer doubled down on his vow to stay put as prime minister, despite more than 100 backbenchers having called for him to go, there was speculation he should brace for a wave of cabinet resignations over the next 72 hours.
But our political editor Pippa Crerar has reported that Team Burnham is desperate to avoid the chaos of a Boris Johnson-style collapse, with senior campaign figures telling her Starmer should be given space to set out a timetable for his departure. The energy secretary and key Burnham ally, Ed Miliband, dutifully knocked down mischief-making about his own position on Thursday afternoon.
This morning, the Starmer loyalist and home office minister, Mike Tapp, told the BBC he did not think such a handover would be realistic, because Burnham “hasn’t laid out his political agenda”.
As my lobby colleagues have set out in this helpful explainer, the timing largely depends on whether Starmer does choose to step aside in the coming days. (Starmer congratulated Burnham just after 6am, posting that voters “chose Labour’s campaign of hope and optimism over division and hate”.)
Wes Streeting, another potential leadership rival, has stated he is prepared to initiate a contest early next week, speaking to a wider question: should Labour go for a coronation with Burnham or a contest with a wider range of contenders? Some will argue that the sheer scale of Burnham’s victory this morning makes the former course more likely.
Who is Andy Burnham?
Britain’s most popular politician™ has the eyelashes of Betty Boop and the wardrobe of a Haçienda dad. To some, he’s a plain-speaking visionary who will remodel the state for the people; to others, he’s a careerist shapeshifter who has already shot twice for the Labour leadership, and lost both times.
His political philosophy, Manchesterism, is about much more than networked transport (though it helps that the bright yellow Bee Network has become a recognisable symbol of the city’s revival under his leadership). It boils down to a more interventionist approach to the economy, the public takeover of essential assets and a serious expansion of devolution.
Burnham set out some big ideas during the campaign – a decade-long project to bring water and energy into public control, an overhaul of property tax and social care – but critics warn we have not heard so much from him on immediate challenges, in particular foreign policy, which is considered a weakness.
The campaign trail threw up several policy “re-alignments” from Burnham. Having previously called for the contentious “no recourse to public funds” rule to be scrapped (which prevents migrants from claiming benefits or receiving housing support, even when they can’t work), Burnham has now distanced himself from that stance. He also said he would back controversial changes to the immigration system – which include an end to permanent refugee status – being pushed through by the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood.
Some worry his flip-flopping on issues such as EU membership, bond markets and single-sex spaces suggest he could be pulled to the right by Reform and repeat the same mistakes as Starmer – particularly as Burnham has been touted as the party’s “soft left” candidate, though many would struggle to define what that even means these days.
What does the result mean for Reform?
This was a bad night for Reform: the party needs to win left-behind, Leave-voting seats such as Makerfield with ease if they are to have any hope of securing victory in a general election.
Despite polling 10 plus points ahead of Labour nationally, Makerfield marks the second byelection loss in a row for Reform UK this year, and the first facing competition from Restore Britain, the newly formed hardline party that advocates mass deportations and the reintroduction of the death penalty.
Although Reform shifted to focus on local issues, such as fly-tipping, during the campaign their candidate Robert Kenyon struggled after sexist and homophobic online posts from a former X account were unearthed, while Restore’s candidate Rebecca Shepherd, targeted right-leaning women on Facebook.
Although Nigel Farage warned voters on the eve of the byelection that a vote for Restore was essentially a vote for Labour, previous polls suggested Restore supporters were less likely to vote tactically than the progressives who were considering voting for Burnham to fend off Reform.
Prof Rob Ford, a political scientist at the University of Manchester, said Restore had a message that worked for them: claiming Reform – with its countless Conservative defectors – had become part of the same establishment that Makerfield voters believe does not serve them.
What happened in Scotland?
The psychodrama consuming the Labour party was a distant echo in the two other byelection contests decided overnight in Scotland, which were necessary after two SNP MPs were voted into the Holyrood parliament last month.
The safe SNP seat of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry remained so, surprising absolutely no one, while farther north the Nationalists lost to the Tories in Aberdeen South after a contest dominated by energy policy.
This will be a welcome morale-boost for Kemi Badenoch, who visited the constituency repeatedly during the campaign, and suggests the conviction of the former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell for embezzlement has further dented voter confidence in Scotland’s governing party.
